About
Actionable Forecast Research
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SubscribeThe Forecasting Group
The forecasts published here are produced and maintained by the CCSR climate forecasting group. Each card links to that person's full Columbia profile.
Andrew W. Robertson
Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, downscaling, and tailoring climate information for adaptation. Leads the IRI Climate Forecasting Group.
Full profile →Muhammad Azhar Ehsan
ENSO dynamics and regional climate variability, and the large-scale sources of predictability beyond the seven-day weather horizon.
Full profile →Jing Yuan
Builds and runs the NMME seasonal, subseasonal and Weather Regimes forecast systems, and the S2S archive in the IRI Data Library.
Full profile →Jeffrey P. Turmelle
Infrastructure, web development and monthly publishing of the forecast products.
Full profile →What we work on
The forecast products the group produces and publishes each month.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecast
Monthly overview of El Niño, La Niña, and Southern Oscillation status, with multi-model probabilistic forecasts for the next nine months. Updated on or about the 19th of each month
Seasonal Climate Forecast
Global probabilistic outlook maps of precipitation and temperature for the next six months. Based on a super-ensemble of re-calibrated North American NMME and European C3S forecast models expressed in tercile categories (below/near/above normal). Updated on or about the 15th of each month.
Subseasonal Climate Forecast
Global probabilistic weekly and biweekly maps of precipitation and temperature for the next four weeks. Based on re-calibrated output from three NOAA models (CFSv2, GEFSv12, ESRL FIM HYCOM) from the Subseasonal Consortium Project (SubC), expressed in tercile categories and flexible thresholds. Updated every Friday.