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Research

An overview of ongoing projects and publications.

Publications

Recent publications

Journal articles, book chapters and reviews from the group, newest first. Each entry links to the publisher of record.

Book (edited volume)

Robertson, A.W. & Vitart, F. (Eds.) (2025). Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting (2nd ed.). Elsevier. ISBN: 978-0-443-31538-1. 864 pp.

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2026

  • Anderson, W., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2026). The critical need for hindcast infrastructure in climate science and sectoral applications. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 107, E615–E627. doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0311.1
  • Yang, J., Lu, M., Liu, A., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2026). The “last-mile efforts” of subseasonal prediction and services for climate resilience and sustainability: review and outlook. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 43, 1103–1131. doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-5256-1
  • Esmaili, E.D., Robertson, A.W., Ehsan, M.A., Singh, B., Kaplan, A., Dey, A., & Joseph, S. (2026). Improving subseasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecasts with U-Net calibration. Climate Dynamics. doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08286-x
  • Vitart, F. & Robertson, A.W. (2026). Introduction: why subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction? In Robertson, A.W. & Vitart, F. (Eds.), Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (2nd ed.). Elsevier. doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-31538-1.00013-0
  • Moron, V. & Robertson, A.W. (2026). Weather within climate: sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics. In Robertson, A.W. & Vitart, F. (Eds.), Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (2nd ed.). Elsevier. doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-31538-1.00007-5

2025

  • Hoteit, I., Abualnaja, Y., Afzal, S., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2025). New Climate Change Center of Saudi Arabia: advancing understanding and prediction for the Arabian Peninsula climate. Earth’s Future. doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006296
  • Moron, V., Cornillault, E., Ali, H., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2025). A climatology of local hourly wet spells across the tropics. Climate Dynamics. doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07714-8
  • Coelho, C.A.S., Robertson, A.W., de Andrade, F.M., et al. (2025). Numerical seasonal predictions in South America. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.972
  • Coelho, C.A.S., Robertson, A.W., Guimarães, B., et al. (2025). Numerical subseasonal predictions in South America. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.973

2024

  • Ehsan, M.A., L’Heureux, M.L., Tippett, M.K., Robertson, A.W., & Turmelle, J. (2024). Real-time ENSO forecast skill evaluated over the last two decades, with focus on the onset of ENSO events. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, 301. doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00845-5
  • Singh, B., Ehsan, M.A., & Robertson, A.W. (2024). Calibrated probabilistic sub-seasonal forecasting for Pakistan’s monsoon rainfall in 2022. Climate Dynamics. doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07071-4
  • DeFlorio, M.J., Sengupta, A., Castellano, C.M., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2024). From California’s extreme drought to major flooding: evaluating and synthesizing experimental seasonal and subseasonal forecasts of landfalling atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation during winter 2022/23. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0208.1

2023

  • Robertson, A.W., Yuan, J., Tippett, M.K., Cousin, R., Hall, K., Acharya, N., Singh, B., Muñoz, Á.G., Collins, D., LaJoie, E., & Infanti, J. (2023). A multimodel real-time system for global probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature. Weather and Forecasting, 38. doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0160.1
  • Ehsan, M.A., Tippett, M.K., Robertson, A.W., Singh, B., & Rahman, M.A. (2023). The ENSO fingerprint on Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall. Earth Systems and Environment, 7. doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00347-z

2022

  • White, C.J., Domeisen, D.I.V., Acharya, N., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2022). Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(6). doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1
  • Domeisen, D.I.V., White, C.J., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2022). Advances in the subseasonal prediction of extreme events: relevant case studies across the globe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(6). doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
  • Stan, C., Zheng, C., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2022). Advances in the prediction of MJO teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103(6). doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0130.1
  • Sengupta, A., Singh, B., DeFlorio, M.J., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2022). Advances in subseasonal to seasonal prediction relevant to water management in the western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0146.1
  • Hansen, J.W., Dinku, T., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2022). Flexible forecast presentation overcomes longstanding obstacles to using probabilistic seasonal forecasts. Frontiers in Climate, 4. doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.908661
  • Almazroui, M., Ehsan, M.A., Tippett, M.K., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2022). Skill of the Saudi-KAU CGCM in forecasting ENSO and its comparison with NMME and C3S models. Earth Systems and Environment. doi.org/10.1007/s41748-022-00311-3

2021

  • Merryfield, W.J., Baehr, J., Batté, L., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2021). Subseasonal to decadal prediction: filling the weather–climate gap. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(6).
  • Robertson, A.W., Moron, V., Vigaud, N., et al. (2021). Multi-scale variability and predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. MAUSAM, 72(4). doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v70i2.172
  • Ehsan, M.A., Tippett, M.K., Robertson, A.W., Almazroui, M., Ismail, M., Dinku, T., Acharya, N., Siebert, A., Ahmed, J.S., & Teshome, A. (2021). Seasonal predictability of Ethiopian Kiremt rainfall and forecast skill of ECMWF’s SEAS5 model. Climate Dynamics, 57. doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05855-0
  • Moron, V. & Robertson, A.W. (2021). Relationships between subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability and spatial scales in tropical rainfall. International Journal of Climatology. doi.org/10.1002/joc.7143
  • Najafi, H., Robertson, A.W., Bavani, A.R.M., Irannejad, P., & Wood, E.F. (2021). Improved multi-model ensemble forecasts of Iran’s precipitation and temperature using a hybrid dynamical-statistical approach during fall and winter seasons. International Journal of Climatology. doi.org/10.1002/joc.7148

2020

  • Robertson, A.W., Vitart, F., & Camargo, S.J. (2020). Subseasonal to seasonal prediction of weather to climate with application to tropical cyclones. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125. doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029375
  • Robertson, A.W., Vigaud, N., Yuan, J., & Tippett, M.K. (2020). Toward identifying subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using North American weather regimes. Monthly Weather Review, 148(5), 1861–1875. doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0285.1
  • Moron, V. & Robertson, A.W. (2020). Tropical rainfall subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability types. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3(1). doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0107-3
  • Merryfield, W.J., Baehr, J., Batté, L., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2020). Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(6), E869–E896. doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1
  • Mariotti, A., Baggett, C., Barnes, E.A., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2020). Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(5), E608–E625. doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0326.1
  • Muñoz, Á.G., Acharya, N., González Romero, C., Robertson, A.W., et al. (2020). Subseasonal real-time forecasts for food security. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.