El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Current status and outlook for El Niño / La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific.
Check the Climate School El Niño Hub for more information about ENSO.

Links

CCSR/IRI ENSO related links and publications.

External Resources

CCSR/IRI Papers

Real-time ENSO Forecast Skill Evaluated over the Last Two Decades, with Focus on the Onset of ENSO Events Ehsan, M. A., M. L. L’Heureux, M. K. Tippett, A. W. Robertson, and J. Turmelle, 2024. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 301. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00845-5
Exploring the ENSO Modulation of the QBO Periods with GISS E2.2 Models Zhou, T., K. J. DallaSanta, C. Orbe, D. H. Rind, J. A. Jonas, L. Nazarenko, G. A. Schmidt, and G. Russell, 2024. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 509–532. DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-509-2024
The ENSO Fingerprint on Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall Ehsan, M. A., M. K. Tippett, A. W. Robertson, B. Singh, and M. A. Rahman, 2023. Earth Syst. Environ., 7, 617–627. DOI: 10.1007/s41748-023-00347-z
Multiyear La Niña Events and Multiseason Drought in the Horn of Africa Anderson, W., B. I. Cook, K. Slinski, K. Schwarzwald, A. McNally, and C. Funk, 2023. J. Hydrometeor., 24, 119–131. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-22-0043.1
Resolving Contrasting Regional Rainfall Responses to El Niño over Tropical Africa Parhi, P., A. Giannini, P. Gentine, and U. Lall, 2016. J. Climate, 29, 1461–1476. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0071.1
Global Meteorological Drought Prediction Using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Mo, K. C., and B. Lyon, 2015. J. Hydrometeor., 16, 1409–1424. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0192.1
Investigating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Society Relationships Zebiak, S. E., B. Orlove, Á. G. Muñoz, C. Vaughan, J. Hansen, T. Troy, M. C. Thomson, A. Lustig, and S. Garvin, 2015. WIREs Climate Change, 6, 17–34. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.294
A Climatology of Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments 1979–2011: Inter-annual Variability and the ENSO Influence Allen, J., and D. Karoly, 2014. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 81–97. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3667
The Role of Targeted Climate Research at the IRI Lyon, B., A. Giannini, P. Gonzalez, and A. W. Robertson, 2014. Earth Perspect., 1, 18. DOI: 10.1186/2194-6434-1-18
Climate Information, Outlooks, and Understanding—Where Does the IRI Stand? Barnston, A. G., and M. K. Tippett, 2014. Earth Perspect., 1, 20. DOI: 10.1186/2194-6434-1-20
Predictions of Niño3.4 SST in CFSv1 and CFSv2: A Diagnostic Comparison Barnston, A. G., and M. K. Tippett, 2013. Climate Dyn., 41, 1615–1633. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1845-2
Recent Multidecadal Strengthening of the Walker Circulation Across the Tropical Pacific L’Heureux, M. L., S. Lee, and B. Lyon, 2013. Nat. Climate Change, 3, 571–576. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1840
Diurnal Cycle in Different Weather Regimes and Rainfall Variability over Borneo Associated with ENSO Qian, J.-H., A. W. Robertson, and V. Moron, 2013. J. Climate, 26, 1772–1790. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00178.1
Prediction of Rice Production in the Philippines using Seasonal Climate Forecasts Koide, N., A. W. Robertson, A. V. M. Ines, J.-H. Qian, D. G. DeWitt, and A. Lucero, 2013. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 552–569. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0254.1
Skill of Real-Time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002–11: Is Our Capability Increasing? Barnston, A. G., M. K. Tippett, M. L. L’Heureux, S. Li, and D. G. DeWitt, 2012. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 631–651. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1
Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts Tippett, M. K., A. G. Barnston, and S. Li, 2012. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 51, 637–654. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-093.1
Early-Season Warning of Soybean Rust Regional Epidemics Using El Niño Southern/Oscillation Information Del Ponte, E. M., A. D. H. N. Maia, T. V. dos Santos, E. J. Martins, and W. E. Baethgen, 2011. Int. J. Biometeor., 55, 575–583. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-010-0365-6
Rainfall Prediction Based on the Relationship Between Rainfall and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Adhikari, S., S. Liyanaarachchi, J. Chandimala, B. K. Nawarathna, R. Bandara, Z. Yahiya, and L. Zubair, 2010. J. Natl. Sci. Found. Sri Lanka, 38, 249. DOI: 10.4038/jnsfsr.v38i4.2652
Interactions between ENSO, Monsoon and Diurnal Cycle in Rainfall Variability over Java, Indonesia Qian, J.-H., A. W. Robertson, and V. Moron, 2010. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 3509–3524. DOI: 10.1175/2010JAS3348.1
Verification of the First 11 Years of IRI’s Seasonal Climate Forecasts Barnston, A. G., S. Li, S. J. Mason, D. G. DeWitt, L. Goddard, and X. Gong, 2010. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 493–520. DOI: 10.1175/2009JAMC2325.1
The Role of ENSO in Understanding Changes in Colombia's Annual Malaria Burden by Region, 1960–2006 Mantilla, G., H. Oliveros, and A. G. Barnston, 2009. Malar. J., 8, 6. DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-8-6
Statistical Prediction of ENSO from Subsurface Sea Temperature Using a Nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction Lima, C. H. R., U. Lall, T. Jebara, and A. G. Barnston, 2009. J. Climate, 22, 4501–4519. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2524.1
Hindcasts of Tropical Atlantic SST Gradient and South American Precipitation: The Influences of the ENSO Forcing and the Atlantic Preconditioning Huang, H.-P., A. W. Robertson, Y. Kushnir, and S. Peng, 2009. J. Climate, 22, 2405–2421. DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2569.1
The Seasonally-Varying Influence of ENSO on Rainfall and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Philippines Lyon, B., and S. J. Camargo, 2009. Climate Dyn., 32, 125–141. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-008-0380-z
Skill of Multimodel ENSO Probability Forecasts Tippett, M. K., and A. G. Barnston, 2008. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3933–3946. DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2431.1
Clustering of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks: ENSO and MJO Effects Camargo, S. J., A. W. Robertson, A. G. Barnston, and M. Ghil, 2008. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9. DOI: 10.1029/2007GC001861
Shifts in the Statistics of Daily Rainfall in South America Conditional on ENSO Phase Ropelewski, C. F., and M. A. Bell, 2008. J. Climate, 21, 849–865. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1617.1
The Roles of Atmospheric Stochastic Forcing (SF) and Oceanic Entrainment Temperature (Te) in Decadal Modulation of ENSO Zhang, R.-H., A. J. Busalacchi, and D. G. DeWitt, 2008. J. Climate, 21, 674–704. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1665.1
Predictability of Sri Lankan Rainfall Based on ENSO Zubair, L., M. Siriwardhana, J. Chandimala, and Z. Yahiya, 2008. Int. J. Climatol., 28, 91–101. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1514
Use of a Genesis Potential Index to Diagnose ENSO Effects on Tropical Cyclone Genesis Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel, and A. H. Sobel, 2007. J. Climate, 20, 4819–4834. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4282.1
Cluster Analysis of Typhoon Tracks. Part II: Large-Scale Circulation and ENSO Camargo, S. J., A. W. Robertson, S. J. Gaffney, P. Smyth, and M. Ghil, 2007. J. Climate, 20, 3654–3676. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4203.1
Improving Applications in Agriculture of ENSO-Based Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts Considering Atlantic Ocean Surface Temperatures Magrin, G. O., M. I. Travasso, W. E. Baethgen, and R. T. Boca, 2007. In Climate Prediction and Agriculture, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 249–257. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-44650-7_23
Predictability of Stream Flow and Rainfall Based on ENSO for Water Resources Management in Sri Lanka Chandimala, J., and L. Zubair, 2007. J. Hydrol., 335, 303–312. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.11.024
Use of ENSO-Based Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting for Informed Cropping Decisions by Farmers in the SAT India Rao, V. N., P. Singh, J. Hansen, T. Giridhara Krishna, and S. K. Krishna Murthy, 2007. In Climate Prediction and Agriculture, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 165–180. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-44650-7_17
ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science McPhaden, M. J., S. E. Zebiak, and M. H. Glantz, 2006. Science, 314, 1740–1745. DOI: 10.1126/science.1132588
Epochal Changes in ENSO–Streamflow Relationships in Sri Lanka Zubair, L., and J. Chandimala, 2006. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 1237–1246. DOI: 10.1175/JHM546.1
Impact of Global Warming on ENSO Variability Using the Coupled GISS GCM/ZC Model Eichler, T., D. Rind, and S. Zebiak, 2006. Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1283–1314. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1308
The Strengthening Relationship Between ENSO and Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over Sri Lanka and Southern India Zubair, L., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2006. J. Climate, 19, 1567–1575. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3670.1
ENSO and the Spatial Extent of Interannual Precipitation Extremes in Tropical Land Areas Lyon, B., and A. G. Barnston, 2005. J. Climate, 18, 5095–5109. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3598.1
A Hierarchy of Data-Based ENSO Models Kondrashov, D., S. Kravtsov, A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2005. J. Climate, 18, 4425–4444. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3567.1
Atlantic SST Gradient and the Influence of ENSO Huang, H., A. W. Robertson, and Y. Kushnir, 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32. DOI: 10.1029/2005GL023944
Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel, 2005. J. Climate, 18, 2996–3006. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3457.1
The Preconditioning Role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the Development of the ENSO Teleconnection: Implications for the Prediction of Nordeste Rainfall Giannini, A., R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2004. Climate Dyn., 22, 839–855. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-004-0420-2
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Seasonal Flooding–Bangladesh Chowdhury, M. R., 2003. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 76, 105–124. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-003-0001-z
Sensitivity of Kelani Streamflow in Sri Lanka to ENSO Zubair, L., 2003. Hydrol. Processes, 17, 2439–2448. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.1252
Seasonal Dependence of ENSO Teleconnections over South America and Relationships with Precipitation in Uruguay Cazes-Boezio, G., A. W. Robertson, and C. R. Mechoso, 2003. J. Climate, 16, 1159–1176. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)16<1159:SDOETO>2.0.CO;2
Probabilistic Precipitation Anomalies Associated with ENSO Mason, S. J., and L. Goddard, 2001. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619–638. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0619:PPAAWE>2.3.CO;2
Seasonality in the Impact of ENSO and the North Atlantic High on Caribbean Rainfall Giannini, A., Y. Kushnir, and M. A. Cane, 2001. Phys. Chem. Earth (B), 26, 143–147. DOI: 10.1016/S1464-1909(00)00231-8
Changes in the Spread of the Variability of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric States Associated with ENSO Kumar, A., A. G. Barnston, P. Peng, M. P. Hoerling, and L. Goddard, 2000. J. Climate, 13, 3139–3151. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3139:CITSOT>2.0.CO;2
Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event Gershunov, A., T. P. Barnett, D. R. Cayan, T. Tubbs, and L. Goddard, 2000. J. Hydrometeor., 1, 201–210. DOI: 10.1175/1525-7541(2000)001<0201:PADEIO>2.0.CO;2
Locking of El Niño’s Peak Time to the End of the Calendar Year in the Delayed Oscillator Picture of ENSO Tziperman, E., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, Y. Xue, and B. Blumenthal, 1998. J. Climate, 11, 2191–2199. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2191:LOENOS>2.0.CO;2
ENSO Simulation and Prediction with a Hybrid Coupled Model Kirtman, B. P., and S. E. Zebiak, 1997. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2620–2641. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2620:ESAPWA>2.0.CO;2
Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis. Part II: Optimal Growth and Forecast Skill Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, and T. N. Palmer, 1997. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2057–2073. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2057:POACMO>2.0.CO;2
Predictability of a Coupled Model of ENSO Using Singular Vector Analysis. Part I: Optimal Growth in Seasonal Background and ENSO Cycles Xue, Y., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, 1997. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2043–2056. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2043:POACMO>2.0.CO;2
Evolution of the ENSO Signal over the Indo–Pacific Domain Tourre, Y. M., and W. B. White, 1997. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 683–696. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0485(1997)027<0683:EOTESO>2.0.CO;2
Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, M. A. Cane, and A. J. Busalacchi, 1997. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 773–788. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<0773:IAPOAC>2.0.CO;2
On the Role of Meridional Wind Anomalies in a Coupled Model of ENSO Périgaud, C., S. E. Zebiak, F. Mélin, J.-P. Boulanger, and B. Dewitte, 1997. J. Climate, 10, 761–773. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0761:OTROMW>2.0.CO;2
Mechanisms of Seasonal–ENSO Interaction Tziperman, E., S. E. Zebiak, and M. A. Cane, 1997. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 61–71. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0061:MOSEI>2.0.CO;2