Seasonal Forecasts

External Resources

• NOAA CPC — Individual NMME Model Forecasts

CCSR/IRI Subseasonal Papers

• Evaluation of Potential Predictability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in ECMWF's Fifth-Generation Seasonal Forecast System (SEAS5) Attada, R., M. A. Ehsan, and P. A. Pillai, 2022. Pure Appl. Geophys., 179, 4639–4655. DOI: 10.1007/s00024-022-03184-9
• Flexible Forecast Presentation Overcomes Longstanding Obstacles to Using Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts Hansen, J. W., T. Dinku, A. W. Robertson, R. Cousin, S. Trzaska, and S. J. Mason, 2022. Front. Climate, 4, 908661. DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.908661
• Seasonal Prediction of the Caribbean Rainfall Cycle Martinez, C., Á. G. Muñoz, L. Goddard, Y. Kushnir, and M. Ting, 2022. Climate Serv., 27, 100309. DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100309
• Seasonal Predictability of Ethiopian Kiremt Rainfall and Forecast Skill of ECMWF's SEAS5 Model Ehsan, M. A., and Coauthors, 2021. Climate Dyn., 57, 3075–3091. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05855-0
• Improved Seasonal Prediction Skill of Rainfall for the Primera Season in Central America Alfaro, E. J., X. Chourio, Á. G. Muñoz, and S. J. Mason, 2018. Int. J. Climatol., 38. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5366
• Should Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts Be Used for Flood Preparedness? Coughlan de Perez, E., E. Stephens, K. Bischiniotis, M. van Aalst, B. van den Hurk, S. Mason, H. Nissan, and F. Pappenberger, 2017. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4517–4524. DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
• Downscaling Probabilistic Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Decision Support in Agriculture: A Comparison of Parametric and Non-Parametric Approach Han, E., and A. V. M. Ines, 2017. Climate Risk Manage., 18, 51–65. DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.09.003
• How the International Research Institute for Climate and Society Has Contributed Towards Seasonal Climate Forecast Modelling and Operations in South Africa Landman, W. A., 2014. Earth Perspect., 1, 22. DOI: 10.1186/2194-6434-1-22
• Prediction of Rice Production in the Philippines Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts Koide, N., A. W. Robertson, A. V. M. Ines, J.-H. Qian, D. G. DeWitt, and A. Lucero, 2013. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 552–569. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0254.1
• Changes in Seasonal Descriptors of Precipitation in Burkina Faso Associated with Late 20th Century Drought and Recovery in West Africa Lodoun, T., A. Giannini, P. S. Traoré, L. Somé, M. Sanon, M. Vaksmann, and J. M. Rasolodimby, 2013. Environ. Dev., 5, 96–108. DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2012.11.010
• Seasonal Rainfall Prediction Skill over South Africa: One- versus Two-Tiered Forecasting Systems Landman, W. A., D. DeWitt, D.-E. Lee, A. Beraki, and D. Lötter, 2012. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 489–501. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00078.1
• Downscaling of Seasonal Rainfall over the Philippines: Dynamical versus Statistical Approaches Robertson, A. W., J.-H. Qian, M. K. Tippett, V. Moron, and A. Lucero, 2012. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1204–1218. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00177.1
• Potential Value of GCM-Based Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for Maize Management in Semi-Arid Kenya Hansen, J. W., A. Mishra, K. P. C. Rao, M. Indeje, and R. K. Ngugi, 2009. Agric. Syst., 101, 80–90. DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2009.03.005
• Predictive Skill of AGCM Seasonal Climate Forecasts Subject to Different SST Prediction Methodologies Li, S., L. Goddard, and D. G. DeWitt, 2008. J. Climate, 21, 2169–2186. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1660.1
• Use of Seasonal Climate Information to Predict Coconut Production in Sri Lanka Peiris, T. S. G., J. W. Hansen, and L. Zubair, 2008. Int. J. Climatol., 28, 103–110. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1517