February 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion
February 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion for Mar-May through Jun-Aug
The SST forecast shows borderline La Nina conditions for Mar-May, becoming ENSO-neutral for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug but leaning toward warm-neutral conditions for Jun-Aug. Most of the subtropical and extratropical North Pacific and North Atlantic SST, and the SST in much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere, is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons, with the exception of the very high latitude South Pacific and South Atlantic waters, which are predicted to be below average. A very weakly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Mar-May, becoming neutral for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug. Mainly near-average to just slightly below average SST is predicted for the tropical Atlantic for Mar-May through Jun-Aug.
Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted for parts of the western U.S. and northern or northeastern South America for Mar-May through Jun-Aug. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also predicted for central southeast Asia for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, for parts of Chile and southwestern Indonesia for Mar-May through Jun-Aug, and for part of eastern China for Mar-May. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for the Philippines for Mar-May through Jun-Aug, for parts of southeast Asia for Mar-May and Apr-Jun, and for northernmost Australia, interior eastern equatorial Africa and northeastern Asia for Mar-May.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for much of Asia and northern Mexico or southern U.S. from Mar-May through Jun-Aug. A tilt toward above-normal holds also for most of Europe and Greenland from Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug, most of North America for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug, and part of northern Africa for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal temperature is forecast in northern North America and part of South Africa for Mar-May, and for part of India for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of Indonesia, southeast Asia and northern South America for Mar-May through May-Jul, and for central Africa for Mar-May and Apr-Jun.