February 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

February 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion for Mar-Apr-May through Jun-Jul-Aug 2022

Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on an objective calibration procedure that combines the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020.

In January 2022, La Niña conditions continued with the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remaining cooler than average. The early February CPC/IRI ENSO forecast calls for a continuation of the weak La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring, with moderate probability (77% chance during Mar-May 2022). A transition to ENSO-neutral is forecasted during May-Jul (56% chance), persisting for rest of forecast period, though with a higher level of uncertainty associated with the spring predictability barrier. No strong SST anomalies are present in the tropical Indian (slightly warmer) and Atlantic Oceans in both observations and the forecast.

The precipitation forecasts for Mar-May and Apr-Jun 2022 show enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation for northern Mexico, large parts of the southwestern US, southern and southwestern South America, central southwestern Eurasia, parts of eastern Africa, and eastern China. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecast over most of northern South America, South and Southeast Asia as well as eastern Australia. The forecasts for May-Jul and Jun-Aug indicate enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over the African Sahel and in monsoon regions of South and Southeast Asia, as well as over Indonesia and eastern Australia, while enhanced below-normal probabilities are forecasted over large parts of the western US, central and southern regions of South America, South Africa, and Central Asia.

In Mar-May 2022, enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for northwestern Canada and Alaska (which continue in Apr-Jun with slightly weakened values), most of Greenland, and parts of northern South America, southern Africa, and mainland Southeast Asia. Enhanced probabilities of near-normal temperatures are forecast over parts of equatorial South America and Africa, and over Australia. High probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast in most regions of the northern extratropics, as well as over the Sahara, the Middle East, the Maritime Continent and New Zealand. This tilt of the odds toward above-normal temperatures holds for rest of the forecast period in most land areas, except in the African/South Asian monsoon zones, which show enhanced probabilities of near/below-normal temperatures associated with enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities during these periods.