January 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion
January 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion for Feb-Apr through May-Jul
The SST forecast shows moderate La Nina conditions for Feb-Apr, becoming weak for Mar-May and transitioning to neutral for Apr-Jun and May-Jul. Most of the subtropical and extratropical North Pacific and North Atlantic SST, and the SST in much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere, is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons, with the exception of the very high latitude South Pacific and Atlantic waters, which become increasingly below average. A near-zero Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Feb-Apr through May-Jul. Mainly near-average SST is predicted for the tropical Atlantic for Feb-Apr through May-Jul.
Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted for parts of the southeastern and/or southwestern U.S. for Feb-Apr and Mar-May, for the western or northwestern U.S. for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, and for part of northeastern South America for Mar-May and Apr-Jun. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also predicted for central southeast Asia for Feb-Apr through May-Jul, for central Chile for May-Jul, and for part of eastern China for Feb-Apr. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for most of Indonesia and northern coastal Australia for Feb-Apr, for the Philippines for Feb-Apr through Apr-Jun, and for part of southeast Asia for Mar-May and Apr-Jun. A tilt toward above-normal is also predicted for part of northern South America and for parts of northern Asia for Feb-Apr and Mar-May.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for most of Asia, northern Mexico/southern U.S., and Greenland from Feb-Apr through May-Jul. A tilt toward above-normal holds also for most of Europe from Mar-May through May-Jul, most of North America for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, and part of northern Africa for Apr-Jun and May-Jul. A tendency toward below-normal temperature is forecast in northwestern North America for Feb-Apr and Mar-May, part of Northern South America for Feb-Apr, and for part of India for May-Jul. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of central Africa and northern South America from Feb-Apr through Apr-Jun, and for Indonesia and part of southeast Asia from Mar-May through May-Jul.