January 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion

January 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion for Feb-Apr Through May-Jul

The sea surface temperature (SST) forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue through winter and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in late spring. Strong SST anomalies are absent from the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, although weakly warm SSTs are forecast by most models to persist in the tropical North Atlantic.

Precipitation forecasts for Feb-Apr show strongly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation for Northwest Mexico, parts of the Caribbean, and the Southern US. Moderately enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation are forecast in Northeast Brazil and Southwest Asia. The probabilities in Mexico, the US, and Southwest Asia all persist through Apr-Jun. In May-Jul precipitation in the US Mountain West and most of Chile has an enhanced probability of being below-normal.

Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation during Feb-Apr are forecast for Venezuela, Guiana, French Guiana, and Surinam in Northern South America, as well as in Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Mainland Southeast Asia. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation persist over Mainland Southeast Asia through Mar-May and over the Philippines through May-Jul.

A strongly enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures accompanies the probability of below-normal precipitation in the Southern United States and Southwest Asia for all forecast seasons through May-Jul. Enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for Feb-Mar through Apr-Jun in Alaska, Western Canada, Northern South America, and Mainland Southeast Asia. From Mar-May through May-Jun, an enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures if forecast in Greenland, as well as Central Asia and Russia with the strongest signal centered on Kazakhstan in Mar-May.