January 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion
It is with great sadness that we share the news that Dr. Lisa Goddard died on January 13 after a long battle with cancer. Lisa had been at IRI since its founding, and served as Director from 2012-2020. She was a pioneer of ENSO and seasonal climate probabilistic forecasting for the benefit of society, and was instrumental from the beginning to the development of the IRI ENSO outlooks and seasonal climate forecasts. She was a brilliant scientist, and more importantly, a wonderful colleague, mentor and friend to many of us. Her spirit continues to guide us in these forecasts.
Jan 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion for Feb-Apr through May-Jul 2022
Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020
In December 2021, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomalies in the tropical Pacific remained at the level of a weak to moderate La Niña. The early January CPC/IRI ENSO forecast indicates a continuation of La Niña until Northern Hemisphere spring and then transitioning to ENSO-neutral during the rest of forecast period with probabilities close to or slightly above 50%. No strong SST anomalies are present in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans in both observations and the forecast.
Precipitation forecasts for Feb-Apr show enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation for northwest Mexico, the southwest and parts of the southern US, Northeast Brazil, southeastern South America, southern Africa, and the Middle East and central southwest Asia. These signals continue through rest of the forecast period although weakened and with some shifts in pattern. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation during Feb-Apr are forecast for northeastern regions of South America, equatorial Africa, Sri Lanka, central China, the Philippines, mainland Southeast Asia, and scattered parts of Australia, northern Eurasia, and more weakly over the northern US and US-Canada border. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation persist over some of these regions through Mar-May and Apr-Jun. During Apr-Jun, and May-Jul, high probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecast over the monsoon regions of Asia and Africa.
A strongly enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures is forecast in the southern United States, Mexico, most of Eurasia, the Middle East, and the Maritime continents for all forecast seasons. Enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for Feb-Mar through Apr-Jun in Alaska, western Canada, northern South America, and mainland Southeast Asia. For last two seasons (Apr-Jun to May-Jun), an enhanced probability of below-normal/near normal temperatures are forecasted for Indian/African monsoon regions associated with the high probabilities of above-normal precipitation over these regions during these seasons.