January 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion
Jan 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion for the period Feb-Apr 2024 through May-Jul 2024
During December 2023, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean exceeded the threshold for a strong El Niño event, with the NINO3.4 index reaching +1.99 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region remained at +1.90 °C for the week centered on January 03, 2024. According to the early-January CPC ENSO forecast, the tropical Pacific is experiencing El Niño conditions and an El Niño Advisory remains in place. The ongoing positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues to weaken with the most recent value of +0.45 °C for the week ending January 07, 2024, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, while the North Atlantic Ocean exhibits persistent warm SST anomalies. Forecasts indicate that the warming in the North Atlantic Ocean will continue for the next couple of months while the Indian Ocean Dipole is forecasted to become neutral. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index which has been in the negative phase since 2020, remains negative (-1.75 for the month of December, 2023) according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Elevated probabilities of below-normal precipitation are forecasted in various regions, including parts of northern Brazil, areas in Chile and Argentina, western and southwestern parts of the US, and southern Africa during the forecast period. Over the Maritime Continent, mainland Southeast Asia, and central and eastern Australia, there is a gradual leaning towards above-normal precipitation starting Mar-May 2024 to the end of the forecast period. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation are also expected in and around the Greater Horn of Africa, as well as over parts of northern South America and central America, and Caribbean regions during the forecast period. In May-Jul, the forecast show moderate probabilities of above-normal precipitation over the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula. The forecast also indicates moderate probabilities of below-normal precipitation during May-Jul, 2024 in the contiguous regions of southwest and western India, as well as central and southeastern Pakistan. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation are also expected across several parts of China, Mongolia, Russia, and Kazakhstan during the forecast period.
Regarding temperature, strongly enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are forecasted across most land areas throughout the forecast period. In the southern and southeastern regions of Australia, the forecast show heightened probabilities for below-normal temperatures during May-Jul 2024.