July 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion

July 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion for Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan

The SST forecast shows warmish but neutral ENSO conditions for Aug-Oct, remaining approximately steady through the fourth forecast season of Nov-Jan. The subtropical North Pacific SST is predicted to be well above average during all four forecast seasons. A somewhat positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to continue throughout the four forecast seasons, weakening slightly by the fourth period. The tropical Atlantic maintains slightly above average SST during all four seasons.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted in parts of northern and eastern South America during Aug-Oct and Sep-Nov, shifting to just northern South America for Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan. An enhanced likelihood for below-normal is predicted for parts of Australia from Aug-Oct to Oct-Dec, with most widespread coverage during Sep-Nov. A below normal tendency is also predicted for southern and western Indonesia from Aug-Oct to Oct-Dec, and for northern central Africa for Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec. A tilt of the odds toward above normal is forecast for part of eastern Africa for Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan, parts of eastern Europe for Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec, portions of northern Asia from Sep-Nov to Nov-Jan, and parts of western or southwestern Asia for all four forecast periods.

A tendency toward above-normal temperature is predicted in varying portions of Africa, Australia, South America, southern or central Asia, eastern Europe, North America and Greenland during a majority of the four forecast seasons. Probabilities for above-normal are strongest in northeastern Asia and Greenland during all four forecast seasons, extending into northern North America from Sep-Nov through Nov-Jan. A tendency toward below-normal temperature is forecast in very small areas of north-central Asia during Nov-Jan.