July 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion

July 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion for Sep-Nov through Nov-Jan

The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan. Below-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, while above-average SST is forecast for the west-central and western tropical Pacific, for Aug-Oct through Oct-Dec. Most of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in the western Indian Ocean and parts of the middle and/or high latitude south Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during the four forecast seasons. Small areas of below-average SST are predicted for the very high latitudes south or southwest of South America, for south of Australia and around Indonesia for most or all of the four forecast seasons. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for all four forecast seasons, most strongly for the earlier seasons, and near-average SST is predicted for the north and south tropical Atlantic for all four forecast seasons, except for slightly below-average SST in the north tropical Atlantic for Aug-Oct.

An enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation is forecast for all four forecast seasons (Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan) for much of Indonesia and parts of northern or sometimes eastern South America, and for Aug-Oct through Oct-Dec in much of Australia and central Chile. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also predicted for part of Central America and the Caribbean for Aug-Oct, and for central Africa and the African Gulf of Guinea for Oct-Dec. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for part of southeastern South America for all four forecast seasons, parts of the African Sahel for Aug-Oct through Oct-Dec, and part of northern and/or northeastern Asia for Sep-Nov through Nov-Dec. A preference for above-normal is also forecast for part of Alaska for Aug-Oct and Sep-Nov, for eastern equatorial Africa and the southwestern United States and part of Mexico for Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan, and eastern China, central southwest Asia and part of eastern Canada for Nov-Jan.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from Aug-Oct through Nov-Jan. Tilts of the odds are strongest for all four forecast seasons in Greenland, varying portions of northeastern Asia, and parts of central Asia and northern North America, as well as for Oct-Dec in the west-central U.S. The tendency toward above-normal is weak or absent in central Africa during all four seasons, and in the southern one-third of South America in Aug-Oct. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal temperature are forecast for northern Argentina in Aug-Oct and for east-central Asia in Oct-Dec. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of central or south-central Africa for all four forecast seasons, for northeast Brazil for Aug-Oct and Sep-Nov, for part of Indonesia for Oct-Dec, and part of the African Gulf of Guinea for Nov-Jan.

The next seasonal climate forecast will be available on Thursday, August 15, 2019