June 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion

Jun 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion for Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec

The SST forecast shows warmish but neutral ENSO conditions for Jul-Sep, remaining approximately steady through the fourth forecast season of Sep-Nov. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted to persist throughout the four forecast seasons, although the below-average SST off the west Indonesia coast weakens over the coming months. The tropical Atlantic maintains slightly above average SST during all four seasons.

Slightly enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted in parts of northern and central South America during Jul-Sep, shifting to mainly northern South America from Aug-Oct to Oct-Dec. An enhanced likelihood for below-normal is predicted for southeastern Australia during Jul-Sep, appearing more in northern Australia in Aug-Oct and Sep-Nov and weakening to climatology thereafter. A below normal tendency is also predicted for southern and western Indonesia from Jun-Aug to Aug-Oct, and for central Africa for Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec. A tilt of the odds toward above normal is forecast for western Africa for Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct, and for a portion of northern Asia during Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec.

A tendency toward above-normal temperature is predicted in varying portions of Africa, Australia, South America, south-central or southwestern Asia, southeastern Europe, the United States and Greenland during many of the four forecast seasons. Probabilities for above-normal are strongest in Greenland during all four forecast seasons, extending into northern North America from Aug-Oct through Oct-Dec. A tendency toward below-normal temperature is forecast in northern or northwestern North America during all four forecast seasons, southern Africa during Aug-Oct, and portions of northern Asia during Jul-Sep, Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec.