March 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion

March 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion for Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep

The sea surface temperature SST forecast is for mild La Nina conditions to continue into boreal spring. SST forecasts in the Atlantic Ocean indicate that the South Tropical Atlantic is likely to remain anomalously cool through boreal spring, while the North Tropical Atlantic is likely to be warmer than normal through boreal summer.

Precipitation forecasts for Apr-Jun and May-Jul show enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation for the Western US, Central Asia, and much of Brazil, but enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation in Southeast Asia and the Philippines. Forecasts for May-Jul, Jun-Aug, and Jul-Sep indicate enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation in southern Chile, southern Brazil, and in the Northwestern US, and enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over much of Indonesia, India, and much of the Sahel.

In Apr-Jun, May-Jul, Jun-Aug, and Jul-Sep enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast for North America, Europe, and most of Asia, while below-normal temperatures are forecast for Southeastern Africa, and mainland Southeast Asia. In Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for India and parts of the Sahel.