March 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

March 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion for Apr-May-Jun through Jul-Aug-Sep 2022

Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on an objective calibration procedure that combines the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020.

In February 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were below average, and tropical Pacific atmosphere remained consistent with La Niña conditions. The early March CPC/IRI ENSO forecast indicates a continuation of the weak La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere summer with near-equal odds (53% chance in Jun-Aug 2022) indicative of large uncertainty. All four models used in IRI’s seasonal climate forecast, predict cooler than average SSTs over the eastern tropical Pacific and a continuation of the current La Niña episode. This has significant impacts on the seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature across the globe. Observations also show a borderline negative Indian Ocean Dipole, while no strong SST anomalies are present in the tropical Atlantic Ocean (slightly warmer).

In Apr-Jun 2022, strongly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation are forecast for large parts of the western, southwestern and southern US, southern South America, and Central Southwest Asia. These below-normal probabilities continue during rest of the forecast period, generally weakening in boreal summer. Moderate probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecast for northern South America, South and Southeast Asia, and over scattered parts of Africa, the Maritime Continent, and Australia during Apr-Jun. Going forward, these enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation forecast to decline gradually over South America, while, probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecast to strengthen further over the African Sahel. In particular, very high probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecast over Australia and the Maritime Continent during last two seasons of forecast period, i.e., Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep.

In Apr-Jun high probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast over the majority of land areas, while moderate probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for northwestern Canada and Alaska, southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia. Enhanced probabilities of near-normal temperatures are forecast for parts of northern South America, equatorial Africa, and some parts of Australia during Apr-Jun. Going forward, the high probabilities of above-normal temperatures persist, while the enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures continue over southern Africa, the African Sahel, and South Asia.