November 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion

November 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion for Nov-Jan through Feb-Apr

The SST forecast shows moderate La Nina conditions for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar, becoming weak for Feb-Apr and neutral by Mar-May. Most of the subtropical and extratropical North Pacific SST and the SST in many of the other extratropical regions is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons. A slightly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar, dissipating for the later seasons. Near-average tropical Atlantic SST is predicted from Dec-Feb through Mar-May.

Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted for Mexico and parts of the southeastern and/or southern U.S., as well as part of southeastern South America, from Dec-Feb through Mar-May. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also predicted for central Chile for Feb-Apr and Mar-May. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for most of Indonesia and the Philippines from Dec-Feb through Mar-May, and for northern South America from Dec-Feb through Feb-Apr. A tilt toward above-normal is also predicted for northern Asia, mainly for Dec-Feb through Feb-Apr, and for southeast Asia and northern Australia for Feb-Apr and Mar-May.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for most of Asia, northern Mexico/southern U.S., and varying portions of Europe, from Dec-Feb through Mar-May. A similar forecast holds also for Greenland, with the exception of Jan-Mar. A tendency toward below-normal temperature is forecast in varying portions of western and/or east-central North America from Dec-Feb through Mar-May, and for part of central Asia for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for central Africa from Dec-Feb through Mar-May.