November 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion

November Climate Forecast Discussion for Dec-Feb through March-May 2021

The SST forecast is for moderate to strong La Nina conditions to continue through winter, likely weakening during the spring but persisting as a weak La Nina. Warm SSTs in the North and South Pacific, southeast Indian Ocean, and the North and South Atlantic are forecast to persist through the spring while the tropical Atlantic Ocean remains near normal.

Precipitation forecasts for the coming season are consistent with typical La Niña teleconnections. In Dec-Feb, strongly enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation are forecast for Mexico and the Southern US, southeast South America, with moderately enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation in Southwest Asia. Enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation persist in the Southwestern US through Mar-May, but relax towards climatology elsewhere by Jan-Mar.

Enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation are forecast for northern South America and Central America, the Philippines, the Maritime Continent, northwest US, and, to a lesser extent, western Australia. Probabilities of above normal precipitation persist in northern South America through Jan-Mar and in the Philippines through Mar-May.

A strongly enhanced probability of above normal temperatures accompanies the probability of below normal precipitation in the Southwest United States from Dec-Feb through Mar-May. Temperatures are likewise forecast to be above normal into Dec-Feb in Greenland, eastern Russia, and southwest Asia. In Mar-May there is a strongly enhanced probability of above normal temperatures in central Russia. An enhanced probability of below normal temperatures is forecast for the US Great Plains for Dec-Feb and for Alaska, western Canada and northern South America from Dec-Feb to Feb-Apr.