Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research logo Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research Actionable Forecast Research

Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
November-December-January Issued October 2017
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

October 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion

October 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion for Nov-Jan through Feb-Apr

The SST forecast shows weak La Nina conditions for Nov-Jan through Jan-Mar, weakening to neutral by Feb-Apr. Most of the subtropical North Pacific SST and the SST in many of the other extratropical regions is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons. A slightly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Nov-Jan, weakening for the later seasons. Slightly above-average north tropical Atlantic SST is predicted for Nov-Jan, weakening thereafter.

Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted for Mexico and the southeastern and/or extreme southern U.S., as well as in part of southeastern South America, from Nov-Jan through Feb-Apr. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also forecast for part of southwestern Asia, and for part of east coastal Asia, mainly for Nov-Jan and Feb-Apr in both cases. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for northern South America and for most of Indonesia and the Philippines from Nov-Jan through Feb-Apr. A tilt toward above-normal is also predicted for northern Asia, mainly for Nov-Jan but also for Dec-Feb.

Strongly enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for most of North America, Asia, northeastern Europe and Greenland for Nov-Jan, continuing more weakly and in more scattered areas from Dec-Feb to Feb-Apr. A tendency toward below-normal temperature is forecast in varying portions of mid-latitude North America, central Asia and eastern Europe from Dec-Feb to Feb-Apr.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.