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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
December-January-February Issued November 2017
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

November 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion

November 2017 Climate Forecast Discussion for Nov-Jan through Feb-Apr

The SST forecast shows moderate La Nina conditions for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar, becoming weak for Feb-Apr and neutral by Mar-May. Most of the subtropical and extratropical North Pacific SST and the SST in many of the other extratropical regions is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons. A slightly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar, dissipating for the later seasons. Near-average tropical Atlantic SST is predicted from Dec-Feb through Mar-May.

Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted for Mexico and parts of the southeastern and/or southern U.S., as well as part of southeastern South America, from Dec-Feb through Mar-May. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also predicted for central Chile for Feb-Apr and Mar-May. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for most of Indonesia and the Philippines from Dec-Feb through Mar-May, and for northern South America from Dec-Feb through Feb-Apr. A tilt toward above-normal is also predicted for northern Asia, mainly for Dec-Feb through Feb-Apr, and for southeast Asia and northern Australia for Feb-Apr and Mar-May.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for most of Asia, northern Mexico/southern U.S., and varying portions of Europe, from Dec-Feb through Mar-May. A similar forecast holds also for Greenland, with the exception of Jan-Mar. A tendency toward below-normal temperature is forecast in varying portions of western and/or east-central North America from Dec-Feb through Mar-May, and for part of central Asia for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for central Africa from Dec-Feb through Mar-May.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.