Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research logo Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research Actionable Forecast Research

Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
February-March-April Issued January 2018
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

January 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion

January 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion for Feb-Apr through May-Jul

The SST forecast shows moderate La Nina conditions for Feb-Apr, becoming weak for Mar-May and transitioning to neutral for Apr-Jun and May-Jul. Most of the subtropical and extratropical North Pacific and North Atlantic SST, and the SST in much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere, is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons, with the exception of the very high latitude South Pacific and Atlantic waters, which become increasingly below average. A near-zero Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Feb-Apr through May-Jul. Mainly near-average SST is predicted for the tropical Atlantic for Feb-Apr through May-Jul.

Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted for parts of the southeastern and/or southwestern U.S. for Feb-Apr and Mar-May, for the western or northwestern U.S. for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, and for part of northeastern South America for Mar-May and Apr-Jun. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also predicted for central southeast Asia for Feb-Apr through May-Jul, for central Chile for May-Jul, and for part of eastern China for Feb-Apr. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for most of Indonesia and northern coastal Australia for Feb-Apr, for the Philippines for Feb-Apr through Apr-Jun, and for part of southeast Asia for Mar-May and Apr-Jun. A tilt toward above-normal is also predicted for part of northern South America and for parts of northern Asia for Feb-Apr and Mar-May.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for most of Asia, northern Mexico/southern U.S., and Greenland from Feb-Apr through May-Jul. A tilt toward above-normal holds also for most of Europe from Mar-May through May-Jul, most of North America for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, and part of northern Africa for Apr-Jun and May-Jul. A tendency toward below-normal temperature is forecast in northwestern North America for Feb-Apr and Mar-May, part of Northern South America for Feb-Apr, and for part of India for May-Jul. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of central Africa and northern South America from Feb-Apr through Apr-Jun, and for Indonesia and part of southeast Asia from Mar-May through May-Jul.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.