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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
March-April-May Issued February 2018
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

February 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion

February 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion for Mar-May through Jun-Aug

The SST forecast shows borderline La Nina conditions for Mar-May, becoming ENSO-neutral for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug but leaning toward warm-neutral conditions for Jun-Aug. Most of the subtropical and extratropical North Pacific and North Atlantic SST, and the SST in much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere, is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons, with the exception of the very high latitude South Pacific and South Atlantic waters, which are predicted to be below average. A very weakly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Mar-May, becoming neutral for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug. Mainly near-average to just slightly below average SST is predicted for the tropical Atlantic for Mar-May through Jun-Aug.

Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted for parts of the western U.S. and northern or northeastern South America for Mar-May through Jun-Aug. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also predicted for central southeast Asia for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, for parts of Chile and southwestern Indonesia for Mar-May through Jun-Aug, and for part of eastern China for Mar-May. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for the Philippines for Mar-May through Jun-Aug, for parts of southeast Asia for Mar-May and Apr-Jun, and for northernmost Australia, interior eastern equatorial Africa and northeastern Asia for Mar-May.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for much of Asia and northern Mexico or southern U.S. from Mar-May through Jun-Aug. A tilt toward above-normal holds also for most of Europe and Greenland from Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug, most of North America for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug, and part of northern Africa for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal temperature is forecast in northern North America and part of South Africa for Mar-May, and for part of India for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of Indonesia, southeast Asia and northern South America for Mar-May through May-Jul, and for central Africa for Mar-May and Apr-Jun.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.