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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
April-May-June Issued March 2018
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

March 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion

March 2018 Climate Forecast Discussion for Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep

The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions for all four forecast seasons from Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep, but leaning toward cool during Apr-Jun and May-Jul and leaning warm during Jun-Aug and especially Jul-Sep. Most of the subtropical and extratropical North Pacific and North Atlantic SST, and the SST in much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere, is predicted to be above average during all four forecast seasons, with the exception of the very high latitude waters of parts of the Southern Hemisphere, which are predicted to be below average. A near-neutral Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep. Slightly below average SST is predicted for the tropical Atlantic for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug, weakening toward average for Jul-Sep.

Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are predicted for parts of northern South America from Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep and for parts of the western or northwestern U.S. for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also predicted for central southeast Asia mainly for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, for central Chile for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug and for northern Central America for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for the Philippines for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug, for parts of the African Sahel for May-Jul through Jul-Sep and for interior eastern equatorial Africa for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, much of Asia, parts of Europe and part of central North America from Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep. A tilt toward above-normal is also forecast for mainly northern and southern Africa and parts of South America for Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal temperature is forecast in northwestern North America and northeastern Asia for Apr-Jun, and for central India for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. The tilt for below normal appears again in northeastern Asia for Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of Indonesia, southeast Asia and northern South America for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, and for central Africa for Jun-Aug.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.