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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
February-March-April Issued January 2019
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

January 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion

January 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion for Feb-Apr Through May-Jul

The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions (>0.5ºC and <1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) from Feb-Apr through Apr-Jun, becoming warm-neutral for May-Jul. Much of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in much of the tropical and southern subtropical Indian Ocean and part of the high latitude south Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during most of the four forecast seasons. Below-average SST is predicted in the very high latitudes in the vicinity of Greenland for Feb-Apr and Mar-May, and south of South America for all four forecast seasons. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted weakly for Mar-May and more strongly for Apr-Jun and May-Jul. Above-average SST is predicted for the north and south tropical Atlantic mainly for Feb-Apr and Mar-May, and weakly off the equator for Apr-Jun and May-Jul.

A tilt of the odds toward below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Philippines, part of Indonesia, variable parts of northern South America, southern Africa and parts of Australia for all four forecast seasons (Feb-Apr through May-Jul), but not for May-Jul for Australia, Mar-May for Indonesia, Feb-Apr for northern South America or Apr-Jun for southern Africa. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are also predicted for part of Greenland for Mar-May and Apr-Jun, and Central America for Feb-Apr. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for part of southeastern South America, parts of the southern U.S. and/or northern Mexico, and weakly for varying parts of Asia for most or all of the four forecast seasons.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from Feb-Apr through May-Jul. For most of the forecast seasons, the above-normal signal is weak or absent in the southern one-third of South America, much of Mexico, interior southeastern Asia and south-central Africa. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal temperature are very scant, and appear weakly in part of south-central Asia in Feb-Apr and Mar-May. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of northern South America, Indonesia and tropical Africa in most or all of the four forecast seasons, and along part of the United States/Mexico border in Feb-Apr and Mar-May.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.