November 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion for Dec-Feb through Mar-May
The SST forecast shows neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 to 0.5ºC in the Nino3.4 SST index) for Dec-Feb through Mar-May. Near-average SST is forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific, progressively cooling to below average by Mar-May; above-average SST is forecast for the central and west-central tropical Pacific, cooling to average by Mar-May. Most of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in the western Indian Ocean and much of the high latitude south Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during the four forecast seasons. Relatively much smaller areas having below-average SST are predicted for most or all of the forecast seasons in the southeast or eastern tropical Pacific, southwest extratropical Indian Ocean, locations just south of Greenland and just south of Australia, and part of the extratropical South Atlantic. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for all four forecast seasons, weakening toward the later seasons. Above-average SST is predicted for the north and south tropical Atlantic for all four forecast seasons, especially for the earlier seasons.
An enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation is forecast for the southern or southwest U.S. in all four forecast seasons (Dec-Feb through Mar-May), and for Dec-Feb through Feb-Apr in southern Africa. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also forecast for much of Indonesia and part of western Australia in Dec-Feb, and for a small part of northern South America in Mar-May. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are predicted for Dec-Feb through Feb-Apr in part of northeast Asia, part of northeast Europe, parts of western Canada and parts of southern or southeast Asia. A tilt of the odds toward above-normal is also predicted for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar in eastern equatorial Africa.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from Dec-Feb through Mar-May. Tilts of the odds toward above-normal are strongest for northern Asia in most of the four forecast seasons, Greenland in Dec-Feb and Mar-May, and central Asia and southern North America in Feb-Apr and Mar-May. The tendency toward above-normal is generally weakest (or absent) in most of Africa (except for southern Africa), western Europe and central southern Asia. An enhanced probability for below-normal temperature is predicted for central North America, central Asia, and part of southern Asia in Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar. Below-normal is also predicted for part of eastern equatorial Africa and part of central Europe in Dec-Feb, and part of northeast Europe in Mar-May. Enhanced probabilities for near-normal temperature are forecast for all four forecast seasons in parts of the northern half of Africa, parts of mainly central, western or east equatorial Africa, and parts of Indonesia. Near-normal is also favored in southeast Asia and the Philippines in Mar-May.
The next seasonal climate forecast will be available on Monday, December 16, 2019
