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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
March-April-May Issued February 2019
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

February 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion

February 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion for Mar-May through Jun-Aug

The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions (>0.5ºC and <1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) from Mar-May through May-Jul, weakening to a borderline El Nino level for Jun-Aug. Much of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in much of the Indian Ocean and parts of the middle and high latitude south Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during most of the four forecast seasons. Below-average SST is predicted in the very high latitudes south or southwest of South America for all four forecast seasons, but most strongly for Mar-May. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted weakly for Apr-Jun and more strongly for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. Above-average SST is predicted for the north and south tropical Atlantic mainly for Mar-May and Apr-Jun, becoming progressively weaker for May-Jul and Jun-Aug.

A tilt of the odds toward below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Philippines, northwestern Indonesia, mainly northern Australia, and part of southeast Asia during March-May, persisting until Apr-Jun in southeast Asia and until May-Jul in the Philippines. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are also predicted for part of southern South America for Mar-May and part of northern South America for May-Jul and especially for Jun-Aug. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for part of central or central-southwest Asia for all four forecast seasons, and weakly for varying parts of North America, South America, mainly tropical Africa and Eurasia over most of the four forecast seasons.

Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from Mar-May through Jun-Aug. Tilts of the odds are strongest in Greenland for all four forecast seasons, northwestern North America for Apr-Jun, and north-central Asia for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. For most of the forecast seasons, the above-normal signal is weak or absent in the southeastern U.S., southeastern China, far southern Australia and the southern quarter of South America. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal temperature are very scant, appearing in part of south-central Asia mainly just in Mar-May. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of northern South America for all four forecast seasons, central Africa for Mar-May and Apr-Jun, and part of southeast Asia and Indonesia from Mar-May through May-Jul.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.