March 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion for Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep
The SST forecast shows weak to moderate El Nino conditions (approximately 1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) from Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep. Much of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in much of the Indian Ocean and parts of the middle and high latitude south Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during most of the four forecast seasons. A relatively small area of below-average SST is predicted in the very high latitudes south or southwest of South America for all four forecast seasons. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for May-Jul through Jul-Sep. Above-average SST is predicted weakly for the north tropical Atlantic and more strongly for the south tropical Atlantic for all four forecast seasons.
A tilt of the odds toward below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Philippines and central Chile for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, the south coast of southeast Asia for Apr-Jun, northeast Greenland and a part of west-central Asia for May-Jul, and Indonesia for May-Jul through Jul-Sep. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation are also predicted for part of northern South America for Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep, and for part of the immediate Guinea coast of western Africa in Jul-Sep. Weakly enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for all four forecast seasons for parts of northern Africa, parts of the Great Basin in northwestern U.S., and part of southeastern South America. Above-normal is also favored in part of northeastern South America and part of central-southwest Asia for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug, and for south-central Africa for Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep. Tilts of the odds are strongest in Greenland for all four forecast seasons, northwestern North America and northern Asia for Apr-Jun, and portions of central Asia from May-Jul through Jul-Sep. For most of the forecast seasons, the above-normal signal is weak or absent in the southeastern U.S., part of China, far southern Australia and the southern quarter of South America. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal temperature are very scant, appearing in part of south-central Asia mainly just in Apr-June. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of northern coastal South America for all four forecast seasons, for parts of central Africa in Apr-Jun, and in southeast Asia and northwestern Indonesia for Apr-Jun and May-Jul.
