June 2019 Climate Forecast Discussion for Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec
The SST forecast shows weak El Nino conditions (0.5 - 1.0ºC for the Nino3.4 SST index) for Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec. Much of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in the western Indian Ocean and parts of the middle and high latitude south Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during most of the four forecast seasons. Small areas of below-average SST are predicted in the very high latitudes south of South America, for south of Australia and just west of Indonesia for all four forecast seasons. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for all four forecast seasons, and near-average SST is predicted for the north and south tropical Atlantic for all four forecast seasons, except for slightly above-average SST in the far north tropical Atlantic for Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec.
An enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation is forecast for all four forecast seasons (Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec) for Indonesia, varying portions of Australia, and part of northern South America. A tilt of the odds toward below-normal is also predicted for Central America and the Caribbean for Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct, and for far northwest North America for Aug-Oct. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are forecast for part of the central Sahel of Africa for Aug-Oct, and part of southeast South America, parts of northern Asia, and part of the Greater Horn of Africa for Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec. A preference for above-normal is also forecast for central southwest Asia and Mexico for Oct-Dec.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec. Tilts of the odds are strongest for all four forecast seasons in Greenland and in varying large portions of central or southwest Asia from Jul-Sep through Sep-Nov. Strongly enhanced probabilities for above-normal are also forecast for part of far northern North America, part of Australia and interior tropical South America for Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec. For most of the forecast seasons, the above-normal signal is weak or absent in central Africa and the southern quarter of South America. Enhanced probabilities for below-normal temperature are forecast for north-central Asia for Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec. An enhanced likelihood for near-normal temperature is predicted for parts of northern or northeastern coastal South America for Jul-Sep through Sep-Nov, parts of central Africa for Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct, and in part of northern or western Africa for Jul-Sep.
The next seasonal climate forecast will be available on Monday, July 15 2019
