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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
November-December-January Issued October 2020
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

October 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion

The SST forecast is for moderate La Niña conditions to persist through the fall and early winter, likely weakening as the spring progresses. Warm SSTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic are forecast to persist through the spring while the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans remain near normal.

Precipitation forecasts for the coming season are consistent with typical La Niña teleconnections. In Nov-Jan, strongly enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation are forecast for Mexico and the Southern US, Southeast South America, and moderately enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation in the Horn of Africa, Southwest Asia, and Southeast China. Enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation persist in the Southwestern US through Feb-Apr, but relax towards normal elsewhere by Jan-Mar.

Enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation are forecast for northern South America and Central America, the Maritime Continent, northeast Russia, and, to a lesser extent, Australia and Southern Africa. Probabilities of above normal precipitation increase in Northern South America through Dec-Feb and persist into Jan-Mar.

A strongly enhanced probability of above normal temperatures accompanies the probability of below normal precipitation in the Southwest United States from Nov-Jan through Feb-Apr. Temperatures are likewise forecast to be above normal from Nov-Jan to Dec-Feb in Greenland, Canada, Northeast Russia, and southwest China. A slightly enhanced probability of below normal temperatures is forecast for Alaska from Dec-Feb to Feb-Apr and northern South America from Jan-Mar to Feb-Apr.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.