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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
December-January-February Issued November 2020
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

November 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion

November Climate Forecast Discussion for Dec-Feb through March-May 2021

The SST forecast is for moderate to strong La Nina conditions to continue through winter, likely weakening during the spring but persisting as a weak La Nina. Warm SSTs in the North and South Pacific, southeast Indian Ocean, and the North and South Atlantic are forecast to persist through the spring while the tropical Atlantic Ocean remains near normal.

Precipitation forecasts for the coming season are consistent with typical La Niña teleconnections. In Dec-Feb, strongly enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation are forecast for Mexico and the Southern US, southeast South America, with moderately enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation in Southwest Asia. Enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation persist in the Southwestern US through Mar-May, but relax towards climatology elsewhere by Jan-Mar.

Enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation are forecast for northern South America and Central America, the Philippines, the Maritime Continent, northwest US, and, to a lesser extent, western Australia. Probabilities of above normal precipitation persist in northern South America through Jan-Mar and in the Philippines through Mar-May.

A strongly enhanced probability of above normal temperatures accompanies the probability of below normal precipitation in the Southwest United States from Dec-Feb through Mar-May. Temperatures are likewise forecast to be above normal into Dec-Feb in Greenland, eastern Russia, and southwest Asia. In Mar-May there is a strongly enhanced probability of above normal temperatures in central Russia. An enhanced probability of below normal temperatures is forecast for the US Great Plains for Dec-Feb and for Alaska, western Canada and northern South America from Dec-Feb to Feb-Apr.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.