February 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion for Mar-May through Jun-Aug
The SST forecast shows borderline weak El Nino conditions, with Nino3.4 SST near 0.5ºC for January and early February, but the SST is expected to slowly return to neutral between February and the early summer. Throughout the forecast periods, the eastern tropical Pacific is forecast to develop a negative anomaly while the central Pacific is forecast to decrease the strength of its positive anomaly. Most of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in the western Indian Ocean and portions of the high latitude South Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during the four forecast seasons. Above-average SST is also predicted for much of the tropical Atlantic for the first two seasons. Relatively much smaller areas that are predicted to have below-average SST for most or all of the forecast seasons include the southeast or eastern tropical Pacific, and various small areas in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere. A somewhat positive Indian Ocean Dipole is predicted for all four forecast seasons.
An enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation is forecast in parts of Indonesia and southeast Asia for Mar-May, the Philippines for Mar-May and Apr-Jun, and southern Africa for May-Jul. Below-normal is also favored for Jun-Aug in central interior South America, and in central Chile for all four forecast seasons. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are predicted in northeast Brazil for Mar-May, and in central southwest Asia, southeast U.S. and parts of northeast Asia for Mar-May and Apr-Jun. A tilt of the odds toward above-normal is also forecast in part of northwest North America for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, parts of Indonesia for May-Jul and Jun-Aug, southern India and eastern Australia for Jun-Aug, and eastern equatorial Africa for all four forecast seasons.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from Feb-Apr through Jun-Aug. Tilts of the odds toward above-normal are strongest in Greenland, northeast North America and northern or central Asia for all four forecast seasons, but, except for Greenland, less strongly for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. The tendency toward above-normal is generally weakest (or absent) in much of central Africa, Indonesia, southern South America and southern Australia. An enhanced probability for below-normal temperature is predicted in virtually no locations. Enhanced probabilities for near-normal temperature are forecast for all four forecast seasons in parts of equatorial Africa and northern or northeastern Brazil. Near-normal is also favored in eastern equatorial Africa and western interior tropical South America for Mar-May and Apr-Jun, parts of Indonesia for Mar-May through May-Jul, and part of southeast Asia for May-Jul.
