March 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion for Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep
The SST forecast shows warm-neutral ENSO conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for March and April, cooling to average for May and June, and cooling further to a borderline or weak La Nina level by July and August. Throughout the forecast periods, the eastern tropical Pacific is forecast to develop an increasingly strong negative anomaly while the currently positive anomaly in the central Pacific is forecast to decrease in strength. Most of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in parts of the Indian Ocean and some portions of the extratropical South Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during the four forecast seasons. Above-average SST is also predicted for much of the tropical Atlantic for the first two seasons. Relatively much smaller areas that are predicted to have below-average SST for most or all of the forecast seasons include the southeast or eastern tropical Pacific, and various small areas in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere.
An enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation is forecast in part of southeast Asia for Apr-Jun, the Philippines for Apr-Jun and May-Jul, and southern Africa and northern Greenland for May-Jul and Jun-Aug. Below-normal is also favored in the northwestern U.S. for Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep, parts of north-central or central South America for May-Jul through Jul-Sep, and for central Chile and southeastern Argentina for all four forecast seasons. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are predicted in parts of northern Asia for Apr-Jun, parts of Central America and far northwestern South America for Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep, and extreme southern South America and parts of far northern North America for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug. A tilt of the odds toward above-normal is also forecast for May-Jul through Jul-Sep in most of Indonesia, eastern Australia, and parts of interior tropical Africa. Above-normal is likewise predicted in central southeast Asia, parts of China and parts of India for all four forecast seasons.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep. Tilts of the odds toward above-normal are strongest in eastern Asia for Apr-Jun and Greenland for all four forecast seasons. The tendency toward above-normal is generally weakest or absent in India for May-Jul through Jul-Sep, and southern Australia and central Africa for all four forecast seasons. An enhanced probability for below-normal temperature is predicted in virtually no locations. Enhanced probabilities for near-normal temperature are forecast for all four forecast seasons in parts of mainly central Africa and northern or northeastern South America. Near-normal is also favored in part of Indonesia for Apr-Jun through Jun-Aug, and part of southeast Asia for May-Jul.
