April 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion for May-Jul through Aug-Oct
The SST forecast shows warm-neutral ENSO conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for May, cooling to average for June and July, and cooling further to a borderline La Nina level by Aug-Oct. Through the forecast periods, the eastern tropical Pacific is forecast to develop an increasing negative anomaly while the currently positive anomaly in the central Pacific is forecast to decrease in strength. Most of the extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in parts of the Indian Ocean and some portions of the subtropical and extratropical South Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during the four forecast seasons. A tendency for a negative Indian Ocean dipole is predicted to develop during Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct. Above-average SST is also predicted for parts of the extratropical South Atlantic for the four forecast seasons. Relatively smaller areas that are predicted to have below-average SST for most or all of the forecast seasons include the southeast or eastern tropical Pacific, and various small areas in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere.
An enhanced probability for below-normal precipitation is forecast in the Philippines for May-Jul, part of southern Brazil for Jun-Aug, and extreme northwestern U.S. for May-Jul through Jul-Sep. Below-normal is also favored in part of southern Africa for May-Jul, Jun-Aug and Aug-Oct, parts of northern South America for Jun-Aug through Aug-Oct, the eastern Gulf of Guinea in Africa for Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct, and Chile and/or parts of Argentina for all four forecast seasons. Enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are predicted in part of central southwest Asia for May-Jul and parts of China for Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct. A tilt of the odds toward above-normal is also forecast for all four forecast seasons in part of the Sahel and central Africa, in Indonesia, eastern Australia, and parts of India.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from May-Jul through Aug-Oct. Tilts of the odds toward above-normal are strongest in east-central Asia for May-Jul through Jul-Sep, part of eastern Europe for Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep, and Greenland for all four forecast seasons. The tendency toward above-normal is generally weakest or absent for most or all forecast seasons in tropical Africa, southern Australia, Indonesia and southern China. An enhanced probability for below-normal temperature is predicted in nearly no locations, except for part of interior eastern equatorial Africa for Jun-Aug through Aug-Oct. Enhanced probabilities for near-normal temperature are forecast for all four forecast seasons in parts of the northeast coast of South America and in central Africa. Near-normal is also favored in part of Indonesia for May-Jul and Jun-Aug, and part of southeast Asia for May-Jul and Jul-Sep.
