June 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion
June 2020 Climate Forecast Discussion for Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec
The SST forecast shows weak La Niña conditions in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for all of the four forecast periods of Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec. Through the forecast periods, the eastern three-quarters of the tropical Pacific shows negative anomalies while the far west Pacific shows positive anomalies with the contrast becoming stronger following Jul-Sep. Most of the extratropical North Atlantic and especially North Pacific SSTs, as well as the SSTs in parts of the Indian Ocean and some portions of the subtropical and extratropical South Atlantic and Pacific, are predicted to be above-average during the four forecast seasons. A tendency for a negative Indian Ocean dipole is predicted for all four seasons. Relatively smaller areas that are predicted to have below-average SST for most or all of the forecast seasons include much of the tropical Pacific, subtropical southeast Pacific, and various small areas in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere.
Enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are predicted for Greenland, and varying parts of Australia, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and Europe from Jul-Sep through Oct-Dec. Tilts of the odds toward above-normal are strongest in far northeast Asia, far northern North America and part of south-central North America for Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec, and for all forecast seasons in parts of Greenland. The tendency toward above-normal is generally weakest or absent for most or all forecast seasons in all of Africa except the northern portion, in southern Australia, the northern half of South America and southern Asia. An enhanced probability for below-normal temperature is predicted in southern Australia and small parts of central or northern Asia for Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec, and part of southeast Asia for Oct-Dec. Enhanced probabilities for near-normal temperature are forecast for all four forecast seasons in parts of tropical and/or northern Africa and parts of northeastern South America. Near-normal is also predicted in part of Indonesia and part of southeast Asia for Oct-Dec.
Citation
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