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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
February-March-April Issued January 2021
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

January 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion

January 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion for Feb-Apr Through May-Jul

The sea surface temperature (SST) forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue through winter and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in late spring. Strong SST anomalies are absent from the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans, although weakly warm SSTs are forecast by most models to persist in the tropical North Atlantic.

Precipitation forecasts for Feb-Apr show strongly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation for Northwest Mexico, parts of the Caribbean, and the Southern US. Moderately enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation are forecast in Northeast Brazil and Southwest Asia. The probabilities in Mexico, the US, and Southwest Asia all persist through Apr-Jun. In May-Jul precipitation in the US Mountain West and most of Chile has an enhanced probability of being below-normal.

Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation during Feb-Apr are forecast for Venezuela, Guiana, French Guiana, and Surinam in Northern South America, as well as in Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Mainland Southeast Asia. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation persist over Mainland Southeast Asia through Mar-May and over the Philippines through May-Jul.

A strongly enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures accompanies the probability of below-normal precipitation in the Southern United States and Southwest Asia for all forecast seasons through May-Jul. Enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for Feb-Mar through Apr-Jun in Alaska, Western Canada, Northern South America, and Mainland Southeast Asia. From Mar-May through May-Jun, an enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures if forecast in Greenland, as well as Central Asia and Russia with the strongest signal centered on Kazakhstan in Mar-May.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.