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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
November-December-January Issued October 2021
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

October 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion

Oct 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion for Nov-Jan through Feb-Apr

Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts issued this month are based on the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPsv2, and COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR models. This month’s forecasts also use the new climatological normal period 1991-2020.

The oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the tropical Pacific during September are consistent with La Niña. The early October CPC/IRI sea surface temperature (SST) forecast in the eastern equatorial Pacific indicates high probabilities of La Niña developing during the upcoming winter, and a La Niña advisory has been issued accordingly. Unanimously, models used in this seasonal climate forecast predict cooler than average SST anomalies and an enhanced likelihood of a second-year La Niña event (5 consecutive overlapping seasons, according to NOAA’s definition), which does impact the associated seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature. The strongest Atlantic Niño event ever observed is waning gradually, as has the negative Indian Ocean Dipole and these two additional drivers are predicted to return to the neutral state in the coming seasons.

For temperature, high probabilities of above-normal temperatures are predicted over most land areas, with particularly high and consistent probabilities over Maritime Continent, parts of South Asia, the Middle East, large parts of African continent, much of North America, eastern Canada, and southern South America. Enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecasted for northwestern regions of US and Canada in Nov-Jan, and later forecast periods. In addition, Dec-Feb, Jan-Mar, and Feb-Apr forecast shows near- or slightly below- normal temperature probabilities over northern South America, southern tropical belt of African landmass, and some parts of western Australia.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.