Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research logo Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research Actionable Forecast Research

Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
March-April-May Issued February 2021
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

February 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion

The sea surface temperature (SST) forecast forecast is for La Nina conditions to continue into the spring, and then likely transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions. The model predictions show a broad range of outcomes; however, and some models indicate that La Nina conditions will re-emerge in the second half of the year. SST forecasts in the Atlantic Ocean indicate that the North Tropical Atlantic is likely to be warmer than normal in the coming seasons.

Precipitation forecasts for Mar-May and Apr-Jun show enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation for Northwest Mexico, the Southwest US, Central Asia, and Northeast Brazil, but enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation in South Asia and the Philippines. Forecasts for May-Jul and Jun-Aug indicate enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation in southern Chile and in the Northwestern US, but enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation in Indonesia

In Mar-May and Apr-Jun enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast for Northwest Mexico, the Southern US Great Plains, Eastern Canada, Greenland, Central Asia, and Eastern Russia, while below-normal temperatures are forecast for Alaska, Northern South America, Southern Africa, and mainland Southeast Asia. In May-Jul and Jun-Aug enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast for the Southwestern US, Eastern Canada, Greenland, Turkey, and Eastern Russia, while an enhanced probability of below-normal temperatures are forecast for India

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.