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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
April-May-June Issued March 2021
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

March 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion

March 2021 Climate Forecast Discussion for Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep

The sea surface temperature SST forecast is for mild La Nina conditions to continue into boreal spring. SST forecasts in the Atlantic Ocean indicate that the South Tropical Atlantic is likely to remain anomalously cool through boreal spring, while the North Tropical Atlantic is likely to be warmer than normal through boreal summer.

Precipitation forecasts for Apr-Jun and May-Jul show enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation for the Western US, Central Asia, and much of Brazil, but enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation in Southeast Asia and the Philippines. Forecasts for May-Jul, Jun-Aug, and Jul-Sep indicate enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation in southern Chile, southern Brazil, and in the Northwestern US, and enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over much of Indonesia, India, and much of the Sahel.

In Apr-Jun, May-Jul, Jun-Aug, and Jul-Sep enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast for North America, Europe, and most of Asia, while below-normal temperatures are forecast for Southeastern Africa, and mainland Southeast Asia. In Jun-Aug and Jul-Sep enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for India and parts of the Sahel.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.