Nov 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion for Dec-Feb through Mar-May 2023
In October 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained cooler than normal, exhibiting persistent La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in October 2022 was -1.03C). According to the early-November CPC ENSO forecast, La Niña is likely to continue until boreal winter 2022-23 with 76% probability; however, a transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during Feb-Apr 2023 (57% chance). The prolonged La Niña SST pattern in the tropical Pacific does impact the associated seasonal climate forecast. The Indian Ocean Dipole Mode is currently neutral and forecasted to remain in a neutral state during the forecast period. The tropical Atlantic Ocean exhibits weak warm SST anomalies.
The precipitation forecast for Dec-Feb and Jan-Mar 2023 seasons show moderately enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over the southern parts of the US and most of Mexico, over and around Uruguay, most of Türkiye, parts of southwestern Africa, northeastern South Asia, northeast China, Korea and Japan. The southwest US/northern Mexico will continue to experience weak probabilities of below-normal precipitation during Feb-Apr and Mar-May, 2023, but other regions will experience diminishing probabilities. Increased probabilities of wetter conditions are forecast over the Maritime Continent, northeast Australia, over northern South America, northwest US regions adjoining Canada, Alaska, South Africa, over parts of Arabian Peninsula, again generally decreasing in strength through the forecast period. Many, though not all, of these precipitation patterns are consistent with historical La Niña teleconnections.
For temperature, enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecasted over much of Eurasia, large parts of northern Africa and the Middle East, parts of eastern United States, most of Mexico, southern South America and the Maritime Continent during the forecast period. Moderately enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecasted for much of Alaska and Canada, southern Africa, and northeastern South America during the forecast period. Enhanced probabilities of normal-category temperatures are forecasted over much of the northern and central parts of South America, and over the Sahel and tropical southern Africa regions during the forecast period.
