Jun 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion for Jul-Aug through Oct-Dec 2022
Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on an objective calibration procedure that combines the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR, and NASA-GEOSS2S models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020.
In May 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean were below average, and tropical Pacific atmosphere remained consistent with La Niña conditions. The recent observed oceanic and atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific have, however, shown some weakness. In the CPC/IRI ENSO forecast, La Niña is likely to persist during late summer, fall and early winter with probabilities ranging from 52 to 59%. This has significant impacts on the seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature across the globe. The tropical Atlantic Ocean exhibit slightly warm SST anomalies, while a gradually strengthening negative SST dipole in the Indian Ocean is evident during the forecast period.
The forecasts show weak to moderate probabilities of below-normal precipitation in the central United States, southern South America, Iberian Peninsula, equatorial Africa and Türkiye in Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct. Enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation are also forecasted over and around Uruguay, northeast Africa, Middle-East and central Southwest Asia during Aug-Oct, with gradually increasing probabilities during Sep-Nov, and Oct-Dec over most of these regions. Moderate to strong probabilities of below-normal precipitation also forecasted over southern United States and Mexico during Sep-Nov, and Oct-Dec. Moderate to strong probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecasted for the central American regions, northern South America, African Sahel, Southwestern Arabian Peninsula, many parts of the South Asian monsoon, the Maritime continent, and Australia during Jul-Sep and Aug-Oct. Most of these regions are likely to experience above-normal precipitation throughout the remainder of the forecast period, except for African Sahel, with particularly high probabilities over most of the Maritime Continent and Australia regions.
High probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast over the majority of land areas, while moderate probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast for the African Sahel, southern Indian Peninsula, northeast Arabian Peninsula, and most parts of South Africa during Jul-Sep. Over Alaska, parts of Greenland, eastern Europe, and central Asia, there is a weak probability of below-normal temperatures during August-October; these probabilities weaken further toward the end of the forecast period. Enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast over most of Australia (except the far north) throughout the forecast period.
