Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research logo Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research Actionable Forecast Research

Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
September-October-November Issued August 2022
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

August 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion

Aug 2022 Climate Forecast Discussion for Sep-Nov through Dec-Feb 2023

Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on an objective calibration procedure that combines the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR, and NASA-GEOSS2S models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-202020.

In July 2022, the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with weak La Niña conditions (NINO3.4 index value in July 2022 was -0.68). According to the early-August CPC ENSO forecast, La Niña is likely to persist until boreal winter 2022-23 with 60% probabilities, which would be the first triple-dip event of the 21st century. The prolonged La Niña SST pattern in the tropical Pacific does impact the associated seasonal climate forecast. In addition, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and weak below-average SST in the Atlantic Ocean are forecasted for all four overlapping 3-month forecast seasons (slightly weaker values during the last two seasons, i.e. Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb).

During Sep-Nov and Oct-Dec 2022, the forecasts indicate moderately increased probabilities of below-normal precipitation in southern South America, over and around southeast US and Mexico, East Africa, western Türkiye, Central Southwest Asia, parts of Madagascar. These values weaken slightly during Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb, 2023. Below-normal precipitation is also forecasted for Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb 2023 over western and northeastern China. High probabilities of above-normal precipitation are forecasted over most of Australia and much of the Maritime Continent, during first three overlapping seasons, with somewhat weakened values during Dec-Feb, 2023. Gradually increasing values of above-normal precipitation are forecasted over several northern south American and southern African regions with highest values in Dec-Feb 2023.

High probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast over the majority of land areas during the forecast period. During Sep-Nov 2022, moderate probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecasted over African Sahel, southern Pakistan, and southern India, gradually weaking in Oct-Dec, Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb, except for the African Sahel which show above-normal values in Nov-Jan and Dec-Feb. Over Australia enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast throughout the forecast period. Weak probabilities of below-normal temperatures are also forecasted over Alaska during Dec-Feb, 2023.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.