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Seasonal Forecasts

Temperature and precipitation outlooks on seasonal (multi-month) timescales.

Forecast

Current seasonal temperature and precipitation outlook maps and discussion. Released on or about the 15th of each month.

Using the forecast maps

Use the controls above each map to choose what it shows. On the seasonal page you can pick the forecast Source, the Type (precipitation or temperature) and the date the forecast was issued. On the subseasonal page you pick the Type, then the year, month and day of issue. The map updates as soon as you change a setting. The box of buttons on the map switches between the forecast periods in that issuance: target seasons on the seasonal map, forecast periods on the subseasonal map. The title changes to match the period you pick. You can zoom with the scroll wheel or the +/– buttons and drag to move around the map. Download PNG saves the period currently shown as an image, with its title and legend.

CCSR/IRI NMME Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for
April-May-June Issued March 2023
Probability (%) of Most Likely Category
Below Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Normal
40+
Above Normal
40
45
50
60
70+
Dry Season (No Forecast) Equal Odds

March 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion

Mar 2023 Climate Forecast Discussion for Apr-Jun through Jul-Sep 2023

Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on an objective calibration procedure that combines the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CCSM4, and GFDL-SPEAR, and NASA-GEOSS2S models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020. The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISST.v2.1 SST data set.

In February 2023, equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean returned to an ENSO-neutral state (the NINO3.4 index value in February 2023 was -0.44 °C). The most recent weekly SST anomalies for the tropical Pacific indicate further warming (as of the week of 08 March, the NINO3.4 index was -0.1 °C). According to the early-March CPC ENSO forecast, the preceding La Niña conditions have terminated and the tropical Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña), which is likely to persist during boreal spring and early summer; El Niño becomes the most likely category in Jul-Sep. No strong SST anomalies are present in the tropical Indian Ocean, while the Atlantic Ocean shows weak warm anomalies in both observations and the model forecasts.

The combined model precipitation forecasts for Apr-Jun, 2023 show enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation for northeastern South America (south of the Amazon River), while the forecast indicates an increase in the probability of below-normal precipitation (north of the Amazon River) between May-Jul, Jun-Aug, and Jul-Sep. Weakly enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation are forecast over the northwest of the Greater Horn of Africa, tropical South African regions, central-southwest Asia, and central China during Apr-Jun, 2023. The forecasts for May-Jul to Jul-Sep indicate gradually increasing probabilities of above-normal precipitation over the African Sahel, and of below-normal precipitation over Central America and over Sumatra.

For temperature, enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are forecasted over most land areas throughout the forecast period. Weakly enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures are forecast in Apr-Jun 2023 for some parts of northern South America, and parts of Madagascar. The weak probability of below-normal temperatures is likely to persist at those locations during the rest of the forecast period, including some southern Australian regions.

Citation

Kirtman, B., D. Min, J. Infanti, J. Kinter, D. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. DeWitt, M. Tippett, A. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. Li, J. Marshak, Y. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. Wood, 2014: The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1.