Feb 2024 Climate Forecast Discussion for the period Mar-May 2024 through Jun-Aug 2024
Note: The IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on an objective calibration procedure that combines the NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC3, COLA-RSMAS-CESM1, and GFDL-SPEAR, and NASA-GEOSS2S models. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020. The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISST.v2.1 SST data set.
In January 2024, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean experienced a decrease of approximately 0.25 degrees Celsius compared to the previous month. This resulted in the NINO3.4 index reaching +1.78 °C. The weekly-averaged SST anomalies in the NINO3.4 region were +1.70 °C for the week centered on February 07, 2024. According to the early-February CPC ENSO forecast, an El Niño Advisory remains in place, and a La Niña watch was issued for boreal summer. The current Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues to weaken and is now in neutral state with the most recent value of +0.30 °C for the week ending February 04, 2024, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The North Atlantic Ocean continues to exhibit persistent warm SST anomalies. Forecasts indicate that the warming in the North Atlantic Ocean will continue for the next couple of months while the Indian Ocean Dipole is forecasted to be in the neutral state. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index which has been in the negative phase since 2020, remains negative (-1.54 for the month of January, 2024) according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
IRI’s seasonal precipitation forecasts issued in February show elevated probabilities of below-normal precipitation in various regions, including Mexico and parts of North America, parts of Brazil, areas in Chile and Argentina, southern Africa during the forecast period. There is a gradual leaning towards above-normal precipitation starting Apr-Jun 2024 to the end of the forecast period, over the Maritime Continent, mainland Southeast Asia, central and eastern Australia, northern South America, central America, and parts of Mexico. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation are also forecasted in and around the Greater Horn of Africa during the forecast period. In May-Jul, and Jun-Aug, 2024, the forecast show moderate probabilities of above-normal precipitation over the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula, across the Sahel region, and the different regions of South Asia. Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation are also expected across several parts of China, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan during the forecast period. Many, though not all, of the latter precipitation patterns are consistent with historical La Niña, which is forecasted from the start of the boreal summer of 2024.
Regarding temperature, strongly enhanced probabilities for above-normal temperature are forecasted across most land areas throughout the forecast period. In the southern and southeastern regions of Australia, the forecast show heightened probabilities for below-normal temperatures during May-Jul, and Jun-Aug 2024.
