February 2026 Climate Forecast Discussion for the period Mar-May through Jun-Aug 2026
**Note: ** The CCSR/IRI seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature issued this month are based on an objective calibration procedure that combines the output from four models: NCEP-CFSv2, CanSIPS-IC4, COLA-RSMAS-CESM1, and NASA-GEOSS2S-2. The climatological base period for normal is 1991-2020. The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISST.v2.1 SST data set. Starting from June 2024, the observed climatology used to compute the dry mask was updated to 1991-2020, and the criterion modified to mask points where 10% of the training sample (i.e. 3 or more years) received less than or equal to 1 mm over a 3-month season.
During January 2026, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remained in weak La Niña territory across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the monthly Niño 3.4 index at -0.54 °C. This marked the third consecutive month that SST anomalies have persisted below the La Niña threshold value. Weekly averaged SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region were -0.5 °C for the week centered on February 4, 2026, indicating the persistence of cooler sea surface temperatures. The early February CPC ENSO forecast, maintained a “La Nina Advisory”, with a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in February-April 2026 (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern Hemisphere summer (56% chance in June-August 2026). It is important to mention that the ENSO prediction issued by CPC is now based on the relative Niño 3.4 index. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is currently within the neutral range and is expected to remain so over the next couple of months. The North Atlantic Ocean continues to exhibit slightly warm SST anomalies, although they have decreased substantially. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index recorded a value of -1.19 °C in January 2026.
The CCSR/IRI Multi-Model Probability Precipitation Forecast for Mar–May (MAM) 2026 indicates slightly elevated odds of above-normal precipitation (green/blue shading) across parts of the northeastern United States, tropical northwest South America, and northeastern Australia. The outlook also shows increased likelihoods of below-normal precipitation (yellow to brown shading) over northern Mexico, the southwestern United States, tropical northeast South America, parts of Central and Southwest Asia, eastern China, the Maritime Continent, and southern Australia. In subsequent seasons (Apr–Jun, May–Jul, Jun–Aug), the odds of below-normal precipitation shift from northeastern South America to northern South America and Central America and gradually strengthen with each passing season. During the same period, the forecasts indicate gradually increasing probabilities of above-normal precipitation over the Sahel region, while a slightly below-normal signal is evident over the South Asian monsoon region. Moreover, in the Maritime Continent region and Australia, slightly below-normal precipitation probabilities are indicated. These gradual shifts in probabilities could be linked to the expected transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions and a further expected transition to El Niño during the boreal summer season.
The temperature forecasts indicate that above-normal temperatures (red shading) are highly probable in most seasons across much of North America, northern and central Eurasia, the Middle East, and large portions of Africa and South America. In May–Jul and Jun–Aug, areas of below-normal temperatures (blue shading) are notable in parts of southern and southeastern Australia.
