Research notes and updates from the team.
A very strong El Niño is intensifying: weekly Niño 3.4 hit +3.3°C (Oct 14), with Niño 1+2 above +5°C and a very warm subsurface. All 27 models forecast a peak near +3.5°C in OND–NDJ. El Niño odds are 100% through MAM 2027, easing to 92% in AMJ and 60% in MJJ, then neutral becomes likeliest by JJA.
Read more →A very strong 2026 El Niño is intensifying, with Niño 3.4 hitting +3.0°C (mid-Sept) and subsurface heat surging. All 22 forecast models agree it will strengthen further, staying "very strong" through winter 2026–27. El Niño probability is 100% through Feb 2027, dropping to 61% by mid-2027. Could rank among the strongest El Niño events on record.
Read more →The 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The traditional Niño 3.4 index shows a clear and sustained increase, with the most recent seasonal mean reaching +1.51 °C during May–July 2026 and the July monthly value increasing to +2.03 °C. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centered on August 12, 2026, reached +2.7 °C.
Read more →El Niño conditions are strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region showing a steady upward trend. The observed SST anomaly averaged +0.98 °C during April–June 2026 and increased to +1.55 °C in June 2026. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centered on July 15, 2026, climbed further to +2.1 °C.
Read more →El Niño conditions are strengthening across the tropical Pacific, with SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region showing a steady upward trend. The observed SST anomaly reached +0.48 °C during March–May 2026 and increased to +0.94 °C in May 2026. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centered on June 17, 2026, climbed further to +1.7 °C.
Read more →The observed sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +0.1 °C during the February–April 2026 season, increasing to +0.47 °C in April 2026. The latest weekly NINO3.4 index, centered on May 13, 2026, reached +0.9 °C.
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