Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

December 2015 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.

Read more →

November 2015 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2, SST data set, and not ERSSTv4. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv4 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons between ENSO events that are years apart.

Read more →

October 2015 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region attained a weak El Niño level beginning late February 2015, strengthened to moderate strength around mid-May, and strengthened further to a strong level beginning around mid-July. For September the average NINO3.4 SST anomaly was 2.28 C, indicative of strong El Niño conditions, and for June-August it was 1.98 C.

Read more →

September 2015 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region attained a weak El Niño level beginning late February 2015, strengthened to moderate strength around mid-May, and strengthened further to a strong level beginning around mid-July. For August the average NINO3.4 SST anomaly was 2.06 C, indicative of strong El Niño conditions, and for June-August it was 1.66 C.

Read more →

August 2015 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region attained a weak El Niño level beginning late February 2015, strengthened to moderate strength around mid-May, and strengthened further to a strong level beginning around mid-July. For July the average NINO3.4 SST anomaly was 1.60 C, indicative of strong El Niño conditions, and for May-July it was 1.32 C.

Read more →

July 2015 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was at a weak El Niño level from late February through mid-May 2015, when it increased to moderate strength and has continued to strengthen further. For June the average NINO3.4 SST anomaly was 1.32 C, indicative of moderate Niño conditions, and for Mar-May it was 1.04 C.

Read more →