Discussions

Research notes and updates from the team.

December 2025 IOD Discussion

IOD Forecast

In November 2025, the Dipole Mode Index measured –0.74 °C, signaling the continued persistence of negative IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR@NASA-GISS/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.

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December 2025 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Sep–Nov 2025 season was -0.53 °C, and for November, it was -0.68 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on December 10, 2025) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.7 °C.

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December 2025 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

In November 2025, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies crossed the La Niña threshold in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly index at -0.68 °C. Weekly averaged SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reached -0.7 °C for the week centered on November 10, 2025, indicating persistent cooler sea surface temperatures.

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November 2025 IOD Discussion

IOD Forecast

In October 2025, the Dipole Mode Index measured –0.87 °C, signaling the continued persistence of negative IOD conditions across the Indian Ocean. According to the CCSR@NASA-GISS/IRI’s criteria for defining positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, a positive IOD phase is defined when the DMI exceeds +0.4 °C, and a negative IOD when it falls below −0.4 °C.

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November 2025 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Aug–Oct 2025 season was -0.42 °C, and for October, it was -0.48 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on November 12, 2025) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.7 °C.

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November 2025 Climate Forecast Discussion

Seasonal Forecast

During October 2025, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remained close to the La Niña threshold over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the monthly Niño 3.4 anomaly index at -0.48 °C. Weekly averaged SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region were -0.7 °C for the week centered on November 5, 2025, indicating the persistence of cooler sea surface temperatures.

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