Category: ENSO Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

October 2021 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

In mid-October 2021, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are below average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The September and Jul-Sep SST anomalies in NINO3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) were close to average, however, the most recent weekly (13OCT2021) SST anomaly was -0.8 C, which is well below average and is within the weak La Niña range.

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September 2021 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.

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August 2021 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.

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July 2021 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.

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June 2021 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.

Read more →

May 2021 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

Note: The SST anomalies cited below refer to the OISSTv2 SST data set, and not ERSSTv5. OISSTv2 is often used for real-time analysis and model initialization, while ERSSTv5 is used for retrospective official ENSO diagnosis because it is more homogeneous over time, allowing for more accurate comparisons among ENSO events that are years apart.

Read more →