Category: ENSO Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

April 2025 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Dec-Feb 2025 season was -0.56 °C, and for February 2025, it was -0.35 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on March 12, 2025) of the NINO3.4 index was 0.3 °C. The latest seasonal, monthly, and weekly values suggest that the tropical Pacific has been experiencing ENSO-neutral conditions.

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March 2025 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Dec-Feb 2025 season was -0.56 °C, and for February 2025, it was -0.35 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on March 12, 2025) of the NINO3.4 index was 0.3 °C. The latest seasonal, monthly, and weekly values suggest that the tropical Pacific has been experiencing ENSO-neutral conditions.

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February 2025 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Nov-Jan 2024 season was -0.50 °C, and for the month of January 2025 it was -0.71 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on 12 February 2025) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.3 °C. The latest seasonal and monthly values suggest that the tropical Pacific has been experiencing weak La Niña conditions.

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January 2025 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Oct-Dec 2024 season was -0.35 °C, and for the month of December 2024 it was -0.62 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on 15 January 2025) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.6 °C. The latest monthly and weekly values suggest that the tropical Pacific has now entered a La Niña state.

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December 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Sep-Nov 2024 season was -0.19 °C, and for the month of November 2024 it was -0.14 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on 11 December 2024) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.6 °C. The seasonal and monthly values indicate that the tropical Pacific is in an ongoing ENSO-neutral state.

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November 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Aug-Oct 2024 season was -0.17 °C, and for the month of October 2024 it was -0.28 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on 13 November 2024) of the NINO3.4 index was +0.0 °C. These values indicate that the tropical Pacific is currently in an ongoing ENSO-neutral state.

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