Category: ENSO Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

October 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Jul-Sep 2024 season was 0.0 °C, and for the month of September 2024 it was -0.15 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on 09 October 2024) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.50 °C. These values indicate that the current tropical Pacific state is ENSO-neutral.

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September 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the Jun-Aug 2024 season was +0.13 °C, and for the month of August 2024 it was -0.07 °C. The most recent weekly average (week centered on 11 September 2024) of the NINO3.4 index was -0.2 °C. These values indicate that the current tropical Pacific state is ENSO-neutral.

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August 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region during the May-Jul 2024 season was +0.25 °C, and for the month of July 2024 it was +0.21 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 07 August 2024) of the NINO3.4 index was 0.0 °C. These values indicate that the tropical Pacific is in the ENSO-neutral state.

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July 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Apr-Jun 2024 season was +0.45 °C, and for the month of June 2024 it was +0.24 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 10 July 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was 0.3 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is in the ENSO-neutral state.

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June 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Mar-May 2024 season was +0.79 °C, and for the month of May 2024 it was +0.31 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 12 Jun 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was 0.0 °C, indicating that the El Niño conditions have ended and that the tropical Pacific is now in an ENSO-neutral state.

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May 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Feb-Apr 2024 season was +1.19 °C, and for the month of April 2024 it was +0.81 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 08 May 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +0.30 °C, indicating that the El Niño conditions are now rapidly declining in the tropical Pacific.

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