Category: ENSO Forecast

Research notes and updates from the team.

April 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Jan-Mar 2023 season was +1.52 °C, and for the month of March 2024 it was +1.24 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 10 April 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +0.90 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing gradually weakening El Niño conditions.

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March 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Dec-Feb 2023 season was +1.77 °C, and for the month of February 2024 it was +1.53 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 13 March 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.10 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing a gradually declining El Niño conditions.

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February 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Nov-Jan 2023 season was +1.89 °C, and for the month of Jan 2024 it was +1.78 °C. The most recent weekly (week centered on 14 Feb 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.50 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing moderate-strong El Niño conditions but which have started to decline.

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January 2024 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Oct-Dec 2023 season was +1.83 °C, and for the month of Dec 2023 it was +1.99 °C. The most recent weekly (10 Jan 2024) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.90 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing strong El Niño conditions.

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December 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Sep-Nov 2023 season was +1.67 °C, and for the month of Nov 2023 it was +1.90 °C. The most recent weekly (13 Dec 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +2.0 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is still experiencing strong El Niño conditions.

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November 2023 ENSO Discussion

ENSO Forecast

The SST anomaly for NINO3.4 during the Aug-Oct 2023 season was +1.47 °C, and for the month of Oct 2023 it was +1.59 °C. The most recent weekly (15 Nov 2023) anomaly in the NINO3.4 region was +1.90 °C, indicating that the tropical Pacific is experiencing strong El Niño conditions.

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